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Clark Square · Special Situations
Deal Spread Monitor
Spreads as of Friday, October 2 · at market close
| Target | Acquirer | Offer | Current | Gross spread | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Going-Private39 deals | |||||
| Goodbaby International Holdings Limited1086.HK | Crystal Aurora International Ltd. | HK$1.50 | HK$1.38 | +9.1% | – |
| easyJetEZJ.L | Apollo Global Management (Apollo funds) | 715p | 680.6p | +5.0% | Mar 2027 |
| Perfect Corp.PERF | ProjectNY | $2.00 | $1.91 | +4.7% | – |
| Tribal Group plcTRB.L | Main Capital (Thames Bidco) | 105p | 100.5p | +4.5% | GM Oct 26 |
| Caesars Entertainment, Inc.CZR | Fertitta Entertainment | $31.00 | $29.65 | +4.5% | Jun 26, '27 |
| Steadfast GroupSDF.AX | Amwins, Dragoneer and KKR consortium | A$6.00 | A$5.77 | +4.0% | – |
| Priority Technology Holdings, Inc.PRTH | Thomas Priore | $8.05 | $7.78 | +3.5% | first half of 2027 |
| Aixia Group AB (publ)AIXIA.ST | White Pearl Technology Group AB (publ) | SEK 87.50 | SEK 85.00 | +2.9% | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Noumi LimitedNOU.AX | Arrovest Pty Ltd (Perich family) | A$0.123 | A$0.120 | +2.8% | – |
| ReNew Energy Global PlcRNW | Dyuti Private | $7.02 | $6.84 | +2.6% | – |
| PT Solusi Tunas Pratama TbkSUPR.JK | PT Profesional Telekomunikasi Indonesia | IDR 45,000.00 | IDR 43,850.00 | +2.6% | Oct 5, '26 |
| Varex Imaging CorporationVREX | Teledyne Technologies Incorporated | $18.90 | $18.46 | +2.4% | early 2027 |
| Baldwin Insurance GroupBWIN | Sequence AI Holdings (Dell family office) | $32.50 | $31.77 | +2.3% | Q1 2027 |
| Art Vivant Co., Ltd.7523.T | Orsay Co., Ltd. (MBO vehicle) | ¥1,900 | ¥1,876 | +1.3% | Nov 11, '26 |
| MarineMax, Inc.HZO | Safe Harbor Marinas | $53.00 | $52.35 | +1.2% | 2026 |
| Future Corporation4722.T | Key West Network LLC | ¥2,451 ◆ | ¥2,426 | +1.0% | – |
| Bowman Consulting Group Ltd.BWMN | Bernhard Capital Partners | $43.00 | $42.60 | +0.9% | Q4 2026 |
| Inventec Appliances6674.TW | Compal Electronics | NT$18.50 | NT$18.35 | +0.8% | – |
| Eurobio-Scientific SAALERS.PA | EB Development | €25.30 | €25.10 | +0.8% | – |
| Roots Corp.ROOT.TO | Marquee Brands | C$4.10 | C$4.07 | +0.7% | Dec 31, '26 |
| Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.BOW | American Family Mutual Insurance Company, S.I. | $34.00 | $33.77 | +0.7% | YE 2026 |
| baudroie, inc.4413.T | BCPE Neon Cayman, L.P. (Bain Capital) | ¥2,970 ◆ | ¥2,953 | +0.6% | Oct 13, '26 |
| Luxfer Holdings PLCLXFR | Wynnchurch Capital LP | $17.37 | $17.27 | +0.6% | Q4 2026 |
| CBIZ, Inc.CBZ | Grant Thornton Advisors | $55.00 | $54.69 | +0.6% | Q4 2026 |
| Integer Holdings CorporationITGR | KKR | $127.00 | $126.45 | +0.4% | By end of 2026 |
| LXP Industrial TrustLXP | Brookfield and CPP Investments | $61.20 | $60.95 | +0.4% | Jan 19, '27 |
| Weave Communications, Inc.WEAV | Francisco Partners (via Willow Parent) | $7.40 | $7.37 | +0.4% | Q4 2026 |
| Pinewood Technologies Group PLCPINE.L | Ridgeview Partners | £4.48 | £4.47 | +0.3% | H2 2026 |
| Time FinanceTIME.L | Bentley Park Limited | 59.1p | 58.9p | +0.3% | Q4 2026 |
| HYUGA PRIMARY CARE Co., Ltd.7133.T | JG44 K.K. (MBO vehicle, fund-backed) | ¥2,110 | ¥2,104 | +0.3% | Nov 17, '26 |
| SEED Co., Ltd.7743.T | Luxshare Precision Cayman Limited | ¥795 | ¥793 | +0.2% | Oct 13, '26 |
| Distribution Solutions Group, Inc.DSGR | LKCM Headwater | $35.00 | $34.98 | +0.1% | Dec 31, '26 |
| OCI GlobalOCI.AS | NNS Holding Limited | €4.10 | €4.10 | +0.0% | Nov 27, '26 |
| Pininfarina S.p.A.PINF.MI | PF Holdings B.V. (Mahindra group) | €1.00 | €1.00 | +0.0% | – |
| Simulations Plus, Inc.SLP | Altaris | $18.50 | $18.50 | +0.0% | H2 2026 |
| Utz Brands, Inc.UTZ | Intersnack Group GmbH & Co. KG | $14.25 | $14.27 | -0.1% | Q4 2026 |
| Mistras GroupMG | H.I.G. Capital | $20.35 | $20.65 | -1.4% | late 2026 or early 2027 |
| The Marygold Companies, Inc.MGLD | Madison Dearborn Partners | $2.00 | $2.03 | -1.5% | early 2027 |
| Kakaku.com, Inc.2371.T | Kamgras 1 K.K. | ¥3,681 ◆ | ¥3,810 | -3.4% | – |
| Tender Offers20 deals | |||||
| Shelly GroupSLYG.DE | Schneider Electric (via SE 2026 A SAS) | €70.00 | €65.30 | +7.2% | Mar 31, '27 |
| Alternative Income REIT PLCAIRE.L | Glenstone REIT PLC | 71.4p | 68.5p | +4.2% | – |
| AKVA group ASAAKVA.OL | Pontos Bidco AS | NOK 161.00 | NOK 157.00 | +2.5% | – |
| Nagarro SENA9.DE | Persistent Systems Limited | €81.00 | €79.15 | +2.3% | YE 2027 |
| Fnac DartyFNAC.PA | EP Group (Daniel Kretinsky) | €35.00 | €34.55 | +1.3% | YE 2026 |
| Utah Medical Products, Inc.UTMD | Utah Medical Products, Inc. | $75.00 | $74.13 | +1.2% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Reway Group S.p.A.RWY.MI | Rinova BidCo S.p.A. | €10.31 | €10.20 | +1.1% | – |
| Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.RGR | Beretta Holding S.A. | $44.80 | $44.37 | +1.0% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Reef Casino TrustRCT.AX | Iris Cairns Property Pty | A$4.67 ◆ | A$4.63 | +0.9% | Nov 9, 2026 |
| ACV Auctions Inc.ACVA | Copart, Inc. | $10.50 | $10.45 | +0.5% | – |
| PLC S.p.A.PLC.MI | Pendant Power S.p.A. | €3.08 | €3.07 | +0.3% | – |
| ProjectHoldings, Inc.9246.T | TX1 Co., Ltd. | ¥2,200 | ¥2,194 | +0.3% | Nov 11, 2026 |
| Sharingtechnology, Inc.3989.T | MP-2606 K.K. (MBK Partners vehicle) | ¥1,550 | ¥1,546 | +0.3% | – |
| Haiki+ S.p.A.HIK.MI | SG Holding S.r.l. | €0.900 | €0.900 | +0.0% | – |
| Oma Säästöpankki OyjOMASP.HE | S-Bank Plc | €17.20 | €17.20 | +0.0% | Q4 2026 |
| Sankei Real Estate Investment Corporation2972.T | City Index Fifth Co., Ltd. | ¥125,000 | ¥125,000 | +0.0% | Nov 17, '26 |
| Iveco Group N.V.IVG.MI | Tata Motors | €14.10 | €14.27 | -1.2% | early Nov 2026 |
| AzkoyenAZK.MC | Ohmnia Electronics | €10.00 | €10.25 | -2.4% | – |
| Recordati Industria Chimica e Farmaceutica S.p.A.REC.MI | CVC Capital Partners and GBL | €51.29 | €52.60 | -2.5% | – |
| Berentzen-Gruppe AktiengesellschaftBEZ.DE | Sazerac Company (via Blitz 26-877 GmbH) | €5.55 | €5.76 | -3.6% | Q4 2026 |
| Mergers & Schemes22 deals | |||||
| Delivery Hero SEDHER.DE | Uber Technologies, Inc. | €41.50 | €36.68 | +13.1% | second half of 2027 |
| Pharos Energy PLCPHAR.L | Ratio Petroleum Energy LP | 32.82p | 29.3p | +12.0% | – |
| Omnia HoldingsOMN.JO | Solar Investments | ZAR 134.50 | ZAR 123.41 | +9.0% | 2027 |
| Mitie Group plcMTO.L | OCS Group International Limited (OCS) | 221.6p | 210p | +5.5% | Q1 2027 |
| Lomiko Metals Inc.LMR.V | Global Battery Materials | C$0.130 | C$0.125 | +4.0% | October 2026 |
| Payoneer Global Inc.PAYO | Nuvei (Neon Maple Parent Inc.) | $7.40 ◆ | $7.15 | +3.5% | mid-2027 |
| Accelerant HoldingsARX | Thoma Bravo (Cherry Tree BidCo) | $20.25 | $19.73 | +2.6% | first half of 2027 |
| MarketAxess Holdings Inc.MKTX | Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $167.00 | $164.14 | +1.7% | first half of 2027 |
| Synaptics IncorporatedSYNA | onsemi (ON Semiconductor Corporation) | $123.00 | $121.10 | +1.6% | mid-2027 |
| Safety Insurance Group, Inc.SAFT | MAPFRE U.S.A. Corp. (Mapfre) | $105.00 | $103.92 | +1.0% | Q1 2027 |
| oOh!media LimitedOML.AX | I Squared Capital (OOH BidCo Pty Ltd) | A$1.68 | A$1.67 | +0.9% | Nov 26, 2026 |
| Motio LimitedMXO.AX | IVE Group Limited | A$0.060 | A$0.060 | +0.8% | Dec 2026 |
| Bio-Techne CorporationTECH | Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany | $73.00 ◆ | $72.40 | +0.8% | late 2026 or early 2027 |
| DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc.DV | Nielsen (Neptune BidCo US Inc.) | $13.60 | $13.49 | +0.8% | Q1 2027 |
| Nathan's Famous, Inc.NATH | Smithfield Foods, Inc. | $102.00 | $101.49 | +0.5% | – |
| Atkore Inc.ATKR | Prysmian S.p.A. | $95.00 ◆ | $94.62 | +0.4% | by end of 2026 |
| Beazer Homes USA, Inc.BZH | Dream Finders Homes, Inc. | $33.50 | $33.40 | +0.3% | Q4 2026 |
| Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.WBD | Paramount Skydance Corporation | $31.00 | $30.94 | +0.2% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Harworth Group plcHWG.L | Peel Pepper (UK) Limited (Peel Group) | 187p | 187p | +0.0% | Oct 25, '26 |
| Personalis, Inc.PSNL | Tempus AI, Inc. | $16.25 | $16.28 | -0.2% | late 2026 or early 2027 |
| Dianomi plcDNM.L | Taboola (Taboola Europe Limited) | 64p | 64.5p | -0.8% | end of 2026 |
| Covestro AG1COV.DE | XRG P.J.S.C. (ADNOC) | €59.46 | €60.20 | -1.2% | – |
◆ Term extracted from the primary filing.
Gross spread = offer ÷ current price − 1. Native currencies are preserved; no synthetic conversions. Contingent value rights (CVRs) are not counted in the spread.
Activist Campaigns
PRAP Japan, Inc. 2449.T (JP) · ¥1,348.00 · MCAP $38M · EV $10M
Fwd P/E: 18.2x · Fwd EV/GP: 0.6x · LTM EV/Sales: 0.2x · LTM EV/GP: 0.5x
PRAP Japan, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a public relations consultancy company in Japan.
Communication Services / Media
Large Shareholding Disclosure · Next Catalyst October 2026
Expected close October 2026
Announced 2026-10-01
Daniel J. Edelman, Inc. acquired a 20% stake in PRAP Japan, Inc. (2449.T) for ¥1.3 billion (~$8.2M) through an off-market purchase (large shareholding report). The 935,800 shares were bought from Cavendish Square Holding B.V. at ¥1,359 per share on October 1, 2026, with settlement scheduled for October 2026. The filing states the holding is part of a business alliance and includes the intent to recommend one director candidate. This stake and board representation request establish an activist agenda under Japanese large shareholding report rules.
Mattel Inc. MAT (US) · $14.85 · MCAP $4.3B · EV $6.5B
Fwd P/E: 9.4x · Fwd EV/EBITDA: 6.5x · Fwd EV/Sales: 1.1x · Fwd EV/GP: 2.2x · LTM EV/Sales: 1.1x · LTM EV/GP: 2.5x
Mattel, Inc., a play and family entertainment company, designs, manufactures, markets, and sells toys, games, and other products in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific.
Consumer Cyclical / Leisure Products
Unsolicited Takeover Approach
Reported 2026-10-02
Authentic Brands Group approached Mattel Inc. (MAT) about a potential acquisition at more than $20 per share, reportedly valuing the company at roughly $6 billion or more. The indicated price is approximately 58% above the Wednesday closing price of $12.66. Discussions are preliminary, no formal sale process is underway, and there is no guarantee the board will be receptive. Roger Lynch becomes chairman October 2 and is expected to assume the CEO role by November 2, following Ynon Kreiz’s departure. In May, Southeastern Asset Management had urged Mattel to explore acquisition or going-private options. Separately, CEO and Chairman Ynon Kreiz is stepping down effective October 2 to become co-CEO of Paramount Skydance, and board member Roger Lynch is expected to take over as CEO.
Definitive Healthcare Corp. DH (US) · $0.94 · MCAP $100M · EV $126M
Definitive Healthcare Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides software as a service (SaaS) healthcare commercial intelligence platform in the United States and internationally. The company’s platform consists of various functional areas, such as sales, marketing, clinical research and product development.
Healthcare / Health Care Technology
13D/A: Nda with Controlling Holder
Updated 2026-10-01 (announced 2026-09-02)
Advent International, L.P. signed a confidentiality agreement with Definitive Healthcare Corp. (DH) on September 29, 2026, to evaluate a potential transaction (Schedule 13D/A). Advent now owns 62.5 million shares, or 58.54% of the Class A Common Stock. The agreement includes a 12-month standstill and a 12-month non-solicitation provision covering executive officers. Advent intends to continue engaging with third parties and the company's Special Committee regarding a transaction. The signed NDA and standstill suggest a negotiated process rather than a hostile one.
Hub Group, Inc. HUBG (US) · $30.15 · MCAP $1.8B · EV $2.3B
Hub Group, Inc., a supply chain solutions provider, offers transportation and logistics management services in North America. The ITS segment offers intermodal and dedicated trucking services, including freight transportation, truckload, less-than-truckload, flatbed, temperature-controlled, and dedicated and regional trucking services.
Other / Air Freight and Logistics
Board Reconstitution via Written Consent
Announced 2026-10-01
DPY Stockholders took control of the board of Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) by replacing seven directors and rewriting company bylaws on October 1, 2026. The majority voting block used a written consent to remove three directors without cause and appoint four new ones, while three additional directors resigned on the same date. The new bylaws mandate majority voting in uncontested elections and restrict the filling of board vacancies to a majority vote. This is a de facto board takeover by the Yeager family stockholder group that removes independent directors and consolidates governance control.
Inseego Corp. INSG (US) · $4.69 · MCAP $72M · EV $124M
Fwd EV/GP: 1.6x · LTM EV/Sales: 0.6x · LTM EV/GP: 1.7x
Inseego Corp. engages in the design and development of cloud-managed wireless wide area network (WAN) and intelligent edge solutions for businesses, consumers, and governments in the United Stated, Europe, and internationally.
Other / Communications Equipment
13D Stake Disclosure
Reported 2026-10-01
Nokia Solutions and Networks Oy now owns 14.2% of Inseego Corp. (INSG) following a $10 million equity investment and asset purchase (Schedule 13D). The investment, which closed October 1, 2026, consisted of common stock and warrants. Nokia intends to engage the board and other shareholders and may hire advisors to evaluate strategic alternatives. A 14.2% holder willing to engage the board and evaluate strategic alternatives creates a potential activist or control vector, with warrant-linked upside providing additional influence through future purchases.
YELLOW HAT Ltd. 9882.T (JP) · ¥1,646.00 · MCAP $888M · EV $961M
Fwd P/E: 10.2x · Fwd EV/Sales: 0.8x · Fwd EV/GP: 2.0x · LTM EV/Sales: 0.9x · LTM EV/GP: 2.0x
Yellow Hat Ltd. is involved in the retail of car and motorcycle accessories. The company offers tires and wheels, oil, functional and car wash products, chemicals, audio visuals, and car interior and exterior products.
Consumer Cyclical / Specialty Retail
Large Shareholding Report
Announced 2026-10-02
Strategic Capital Inc. holds 10.1 million shares, or 11.73%, of Yellow Hat Ltd. The previous reported shareholding ratio was 12.74%. Strategic Capital's proposals include a 100% dividend payout ratio, improving capital structure via interest-bearing debt and equity restraint, and selling cross-shareholdings. The report lists 60 days of disposals from July 28 through September 25, 2026. Of the 10,089,200 shares held under an investment management agreement with Intertrust Trustees (Cayman) Limited, 2,997,600 are pledged to Tachibana Securities and 500,000 are lent to Tachibana Securities.
Sankei Real Estate Investment Corporation 2972.T (JP) · ¥125,000.00 · MCAP $370M · EV $633M
Sankei Real Estate Investment Corporation is a listed real estate investment corporation (J-REIT) trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange under code 2972.
Real Estate / Office REITs
Large Shareholding Report with Delisting Proposal
Updated 2026-09-25 (announced 2026-07-31)
City Index Elevenths Co., Ltd. and three joint holders now own 29.9% of Sankei Real Estate Investment Corporation (2972.T) and proposed the delisting of the investment units on July 31, 2026 (large shareholding report). On September 25, 2026, the group split regarding a tender offer from City Index Fifths Co., Ltd., as City Index Elevenths and C&I Holdings agreed to tender while Nomura Aya and ATRA Co., Ltd. agreed not to ATRA Co., Ltd. will purchase Nomura Aya's 46,174 units roughly two months after the tender offer completes at the offer price. This event creates a partial lock-up among the joint holders and a pending transfer of Nomura Aya's 9.89% stake to ATRA.
NORITAKE Co., Ltd. 5331.T (JP) · ¥3,685.00 · MCAP $1.3B · EV $1.3B
Fwd EV/EBITDA: 9.4x · Fwd EV/Sales: 1.2x · LTM EV/Sales: 1.4x · LTM EV/GP: 4.9x
Japanese ceramics maker producing Noritake-brand tableware, plus industrial grinding and abrasive products and ceramic materials and electronic pastes.
Industrials / Machinery
Large Shareholding Report
Announced 2026-09-30
Strategic Capital Inc. filed an initial 5%+ large shareholding report. The reported stake in NORITAKE Co., Ltd. is 6.1%.
Digimarc Corporation DMRC (US) · $5.82 · MCAP $130M · EV $126M
Fwd P/E: NM · Fwd EV/EBITDA: NM · Fwd EV/Sales: 4.7x · LTM EV/Sales: 4.0x · LTM EV/GP: 5.3x
Digimarc Corporation provides digital identity and authentication solutions in the United States and internationally. The company offers software subscriptions and software development services.
Technology / Software
13D Amendment Stake Increase
Announced 2026-09-30
Ocho Investments LLC acquired 3.7 million shares of Digimarc common stock in a registered direct offering at $4.04 per share for an aggregate price of $14.8 million. Ocho and Andris Upitis now beneficially own 5.0 million shares, or 18.5% of Digimarc's 27.0 million shares outstanding. Ocho's stated purpose includes engaging with the board on composition, including potential appointment of Ocho designees and resignation of certain legacy directors. Ocho also intends to discuss capital structure, potential financing alternatives, and may propose or participate in a financing transaction involving the Issuer.
Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc. SAMG (US) · $10.55 · MCAP $83M
Fwd P/E: 15.5x
US wealth management firm providing investment management and family office services to high-net-worth individuals, families and institutions.
Capital Markets
Activist 13D Filing
Announced 2026-09-30
Equinox Partners Investment Management LLC, Equinox Partners, L.P., and Sean M. Fieler now own 7.1% of Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc. (SAMG) (Schedule 13D). The group paid $5.5 million to acquire 554,736 Class A shares. The reporting persons may engage with the board regarding operations, capitalization, ownership structure, or capital allocation strategy. This filing reserves the right to push for value-realization steps such as buybacks or a sale of the asset manager.